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Long Term Trends and Business Cycles
Long Term Trends and Business Cycles brings together the key contributions in these various areas and comprises 54 papers published from 1923 to 1999. It will be of interest to economists and econometricians engaged in the analysis of macroeconomic time series.
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Critical Acclaim
Contributors
Contents
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The behaviour of long term, secular trends and shorter run, business cycle, movements in economic data have long been a concern of economists, statisticians and econometricians. The isolation and interpretation of cyclical movements was the basis for early empirical work in economics, while the early dynamic models were constructed to reproduce cyclical fluctuations. The first econometric models analysed the cyclical path of economies, while focusing attention on the processes that generate trends in economic variables has led to the recent revolution in time series econometrics.
Long Term Trends and Business Cycles brings together the key contributions in these various areas and comprises 54 papers published from 1923 to 1999. It will be of interest to economists and econometricians engaged in the analysis of macroeconomic time series.
Long Term Trends and Business Cycles brings together the key contributions in these various areas and comprises 54 papers published from 1923 to 1999. It will be of interest to economists and econometricians engaged in the analysis of macroeconomic time series.
Critical Acclaim
‘Understanding business cycle fluctuations in market economies has long been a central concern of economics. The study of long term trends and business cycles and the extent to which they can be usefully separated has absorbed the energies of our best statisticians, econometricians and economists for at least the last 100 years. The readings in these two volumes provide an excellent map to explore a field that continues to expand rapidly. It covers the early largely statistical approaches, through to the Cowles Commission and NBER approaches and on to the real business cycle literature of the last 15 years. An essential reference for any serious student of macroeconomics.’
– Sean Holly, University of Cambridge, UK
– Sean Holly, University of Cambridge, UK
Contributors
54 articles, dating from 1923 to 1999
Contributors include: F. Diebold, M. Friedman, R. King, T. Koopmans, R. Lucas Jr., C. Nelson, E. Prescott, P. Samuelson, J. Tinbergen, V. Zarnowitz
Contributors include: F. Diebold, M. Friedman, R. King, T. Koopmans, R. Lucas Jr., C. Nelson, E. Prescott, P. Samuelson, J. Tinbergen, V. Zarnowitz
Contents
Contents:
Volume I
Acknowledgements
Introduction Terence C. Mills
PART I FIRST ATTEMPTS AT MEASURING BUSINESS CYCLES
1. Joseph Kitchin (1923), ‘Cycles and Trends in Economic Factors’
2. Edwin Frickey (1934), ‘The Problem of Secular Trend’
3. Joseph A. Schumpeter (1935), ‘The Analysis of Economic Change’
PART II TRADITIONAL BUSINESS CYCLE THEORIES
4. Paul A. Samuelson (1939), ‘Interactions Between the Multiplier Analysis and the Principle of Acceleration’
5. Nicholas Kaldor (1940), ‘A Model of the Trade Cycle’
6. Lloyd A. Metzler (1941), ‘The Nature and Stability of Inventory Cycles’
PART III SCEPTICAL VIEWS ABOUT BUSINESS CYCLES AND EARLY EMPIRICAL METHODS
7. Irving Fisher (1925), ‘Our Unstable Dollar and the So-called Business Cycle’
8. Simon Kuznets (1929), ‘Random Events and Cyclical Oscillations’
9. J.M. Keynes (1939), ‘Professor Tinbergen’s Method’
10. Jan Tinbergen (1940), ‘On a Method of Statistical Business-Cycle Research. A Reply’
11. J. Tinbergen (1942), ‘Critical Remarks on Some Business-cycle Theories’
12. Trygve Haavelmo (1943), ‘Statistical Testing of Business-cycle Theories’
PART IV MEASUREMENT WITHOUT THEORY DEBATE
13. Tjalling C. Koopmans (1947), ‘Measurement Without Theory’
14. Edward Ames (1948), ‘A Theoretical and Statistical Dilemma – The Contribution of Burns, Mitchell, and Frickey to Business-cycle Theory’
15. Rutledge Vining and Tjalling C. Koopmans (1949), ‘Methodological Issues in Quantitative Economics’
16. Milton Friedman (1950), ‘Wesley C. Mitchell as an Economic Theorist’
PART V INTERACTIONS BETWEEN TRENDS AND CYCLES
17. Nicholas Kaldor (1954), ‘The Relation of Economic Growth and Cyclical Fluctuations’
18. B. Higgins (1955), ‘Interactions of Cycles and Trends’
PART VI MODERN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORIES
19. Victor Zarnowitz (1985), ‘Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: A Review of Theories and Evidence’
20. William D. Nordhaus (1975), ‘The Political Business Cycle’
21. Robert E. Lucas, Jr. (1975), ‘An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle’
22. Finn E. Kydland and Edward C. Prescott (1982), ‘Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations’
23. John B. Long, Jr. and Charles I. Plosser (1983), ‘Real Business Cycles’
24. Michael Wickens (1995), ‘Real Business Cycle Analysis: A Needed Revolution in Macroeconometrics’
25. Francis X. Diebold and Glenn D. Rudebusch (1996), ‘Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective’
26. Jeffrey A. Miron and J. Joseph Beaulieu (1996), ‘What Have Macroeconomists Learned About Business Cycles from the Study of Seasonal Cycles?’
PART VII NONLINEAR AND DURATION MODELS OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE
27. Hal R. Varian (1979), ‘Catastrophe Theory and the Business Cycle’
28. James H. Stock (1987), ‘Measuring Business Cycle Time’
29. Salih N. Neftçi (1984), ‘Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?’
30. William A. Brock and Chera L. Sayers (1988), ‘Is the Business Cycle Characterized by Deterministic Chaos?’
31. Francis X. Diebold and Glenn D. Rudebusch (1990), ‘A Nonparametric Investigation of Duration Dependence in the American Business Cycle’
Name Index
Volume II
Acknowledgements
An introduction by the editor to both volumes appears in Volume I
PART I DATING BUSINESS CYCLE TURNING POINTS
1. George W. Cloos (1963), ‘How Good Are the National Bureau’s Reference Dates?’
2. Victor Zarnowitz (1963), ‘On the Dating of Business Cycles’
3. Michael D. Boldin (1994), ‘Dating Turning Points in the Business Cycle’
4. Michael J. Artis, Zenon G. Kontolemis and Denise R. Osborn (1997), ‘Business Cycles for G7 and European Countries’
PART II MODELLING TRENDS AND CYCLES IN ECONOMIC TIME SERIES
5. L.R. Klein and R.F. Kosobud (1961), ‘Some Econometrics of Growth: Great Ratios of Economics’
6. Stephen Beveridge and Charles R. Nelson (1981), ‘A New Approach to Decomposition of Economic Time Series Into Permanent and Transitory Components with Particular Attention to Measurement of the "Business Cycle"’
7. Charles R. Nelson and Charles I. Plosser (1982), ‘Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: Some Evidence and Implications’
8. A.C. Harvey (1985), ‘Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series’
9. James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson (1988), ‘Variable Trends in Economic Time Series’
10. John H. Cochrane (1988), ‘How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?’
11. Robert G. King, Charles I. Plosser, James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson (1991), ‘Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations’
12. Pierre Perron (1989), ‘The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis’
13. Nathan S. Balke and Thomas B. Fomby (1991), ‘Shifting Trends, Segmented Trends, and Infrequent Permanent Shocks’
14. F. Vahid and R.F. Engle (1993), ‘Common Trends and Common Cycles’
PART III DETRENDING ECONOMIC TIME SERIES
15. Mark W. Watson (1986), ‘Univariate Detrending Methods with Stochastic Trends’, Journal of Monetary Economics, 18 (1), July, 49-75 [27]
16. Robert J. Hodrick and Edward C. Prescott (1997), ‘Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation’
17. Timothy Cogley and James M. Nason (1995), ‘Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott Filter on Trend and Difference Stationary Time Series: Implications for Business Cycle Research’
18. Marianne Baxter and Robert G. King (1999), ‘Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-pass Filters for Economic Time Series’
19. Fabio Canova (1998), ‘Detrending and Business Cycle Facts’
20. Craig Burnside (1998), ‘Detrending and Business Cycle Facts: A Comment’
PART IV HISTORICAL EXAMINATIONS OF TRENDS AND CYCLES
21. Terence C. Mills and N.F.R. Crafts (1996), ‘Trend Growth in British Industrial Output, 1700–1913: A Reappraisal’
22. Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz (1963), ‘Money and Business Cycles’
23. Christina D. Romer (1994), ‘Remeasuring Business Cycles’
Name Index
Volume I
Acknowledgements
Introduction Terence C. Mills
PART I FIRST ATTEMPTS AT MEASURING BUSINESS CYCLES
1. Joseph Kitchin (1923), ‘Cycles and Trends in Economic Factors’
2. Edwin Frickey (1934), ‘The Problem of Secular Trend’
3. Joseph A. Schumpeter (1935), ‘The Analysis of Economic Change’
PART II TRADITIONAL BUSINESS CYCLE THEORIES
4. Paul A. Samuelson (1939), ‘Interactions Between the Multiplier Analysis and the Principle of Acceleration’
5. Nicholas Kaldor (1940), ‘A Model of the Trade Cycle’
6. Lloyd A. Metzler (1941), ‘The Nature and Stability of Inventory Cycles’
PART III SCEPTICAL VIEWS ABOUT BUSINESS CYCLES AND EARLY EMPIRICAL METHODS
7. Irving Fisher (1925), ‘Our Unstable Dollar and the So-called Business Cycle’
8. Simon Kuznets (1929), ‘Random Events and Cyclical Oscillations’
9. J.M. Keynes (1939), ‘Professor Tinbergen’s Method’
10. Jan Tinbergen (1940), ‘On a Method of Statistical Business-Cycle Research. A Reply’
11. J. Tinbergen (1942), ‘Critical Remarks on Some Business-cycle Theories’
12. Trygve Haavelmo (1943), ‘Statistical Testing of Business-cycle Theories’
PART IV MEASUREMENT WITHOUT THEORY DEBATE
13. Tjalling C. Koopmans (1947), ‘Measurement Without Theory’
14. Edward Ames (1948), ‘A Theoretical and Statistical Dilemma – The Contribution of Burns, Mitchell, and Frickey to Business-cycle Theory’
15. Rutledge Vining and Tjalling C. Koopmans (1949), ‘Methodological Issues in Quantitative Economics’
16. Milton Friedman (1950), ‘Wesley C. Mitchell as an Economic Theorist’
PART V INTERACTIONS BETWEEN TRENDS AND CYCLES
17. Nicholas Kaldor (1954), ‘The Relation of Economic Growth and Cyclical Fluctuations’
18. B. Higgins (1955), ‘Interactions of Cycles and Trends’
PART VI MODERN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORIES
19. Victor Zarnowitz (1985), ‘Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: A Review of Theories and Evidence’
20. William D. Nordhaus (1975), ‘The Political Business Cycle’
21. Robert E. Lucas, Jr. (1975), ‘An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle’
22. Finn E. Kydland and Edward C. Prescott (1982), ‘Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations’
23. John B. Long, Jr. and Charles I. Plosser (1983), ‘Real Business Cycles’
24. Michael Wickens (1995), ‘Real Business Cycle Analysis: A Needed Revolution in Macroeconometrics’
25. Francis X. Diebold and Glenn D. Rudebusch (1996), ‘Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective’
26. Jeffrey A. Miron and J. Joseph Beaulieu (1996), ‘What Have Macroeconomists Learned About Business Cycles from the Study of Seasonal Cycles?’
PART VII NONLINEAR AND DURATION MODELS OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE
27. Hal R. Varian (1979), ‘Catastrophe Theory and the Business Cycle’
28. James H. Stock (1987), ‘Measuring Business Cycle Time’
29. Salih N. Neftçi (1984), ‘Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?’
30. William A. Brock and Chera L. Sayers (1988), ‘Is the Business Cycle Characterized by Deterministic Chaos?’
31. Francis X. Diebold and Glenn D. Rudebusch (1990), ‘A Nonparametric Investigation of Duration Dependence in the American Business Cycle’
Name Index
Volume II
Acknowledgements
An introduction by the editor to both volumes appears in Volume I
PART I DATING BUSINESS CYCLE TURNING POINTS
1. George W. Cloos (1963), ‘How Good Are the National Bureau’s Reference Dates?’
2. Victor Zarnowitz (1963), ‘On the Dating of Business Cycles’
3. Michael D. Boldin (1994), ‘Dating Turning Points in the Business Cycle’
4. Michael J. Artis, Zenon G. Kontolemis and Denise R. Osborn (1997), ‘Business Cycles for G7 and European Countries’
PART II MODELLING TRENDS AND CYCLES IN ECONOMIC TIME SERIES
5. L.R. Klein and R.F. Kosobud (1961), ‘Some Econometrics of Growth: Great Ratios of Economics’
6. Stephen Beveridge and Charles R. Nelson (1981), ‘A New Approach to Decomposition of Economic Time Series Into Permanent and Transitory Components with Particular Attention to Measurement of the "Business Cycle"’
7. Charles R. Nelson and Charles I. Plosser (1982), ‘Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: Some Evidence and Implications’
8. A.C. Harvey (1985), ‘Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series’
9. James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson (1988), ‘Variable Trends in Economic Time Series’
10. John H. Cochrane (1988), ‘How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?’
11. Robert G. King, Charles I. Plosser, James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson (1991), ‘Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations’
12. Pierre Perron (1989), ‘The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis’
13. Nathan S. Balke and Thomas B. Fomby (1991), ‘Shifting Trends, Segmented Trends, and Infrequent Permanent Shocks’
14. F. Vahid and R.F. Engle (1993), ‘Common Trends and Common Cycles’
PART III DETRENDING ECONOMIC TIME SERIES
15. Mark W. Watson (1986), ‘Univariate Detrending Methods with Stochastic Trends’, Journal of Monetary Economics, 18 (1), July, 49-75 [27]
16. Robert J. Hodrick and Edward C. Prescott (1997), ‘Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation’
17. Timothy Cogley and James M. Nason (1995), ‘Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott Filter on Trend and Difference Stationary Time Series: Implications for Business Cycle Research’
18. Marianne Baxter and Robert G. King (1999), ‘Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-pass Filters for Economic Time Series’
19. Fabio Canova (1998), ‘Detrending and Business Cycle Facts’
20. Craig Burnside (1998), ‘Detrending and Business Cycle Facts: A Comment’
PART IV HISTORICAL EXAMINATIONS OF TRENDS AND CYCLES
21. Terence C. Mills and N.F.R. Crafts (1996), ‘Trend Growth in British Industrial Output, 1700–1913: A Reappraisal’
22. Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz (1963), ‘Money and Business Cycles’
23. Christina D. Romer (1994), ‘Remeasuring Business Cycles’
Name Index
