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From Uncertainty to Policy: A Guide to Migration Scenarios
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This unique book provides a practical and interdisciplinary blueprint for determining quantitative scenarios of future international migration. Focusing on complexity and uncertainty as the defining challenges of migration, it explores how scenario building can be used to inform and underpin effective migration policy and practice
This unique book provides a practical and interdisciplinary blueprint for determining quantitative scenarios of future international migration. Focusing on complexity and uncertainty as the defining challenges of migration, it explores how scenario building can be used to inform and underpin effective migration policy and practice
More Information
Critical Acclaim
Contents
More Information
This unique book provides a practical and interdisciplinary blueprint for determining quantitative scenarios of future international migration. Focusing on complexity and uncertainty as the defining challenges of migration, it explores how scenario building can be used to inform and underpin effective migration policy and practice.
Through conceptual, theoretical and methodological analysis, From Uncertainty to Policy: A Guide to Migration Scenarios outlines the current state of the art in future-oriented migration studies. Highlighting key lessons and recommendations, expert contributors assess both the opportunities and limitations of scenario building as an analytical device. They combine demographic, statistical, sociological, economic, geographic and political science expertise to develop a new multi-step process for estimating, predicting and simulating migration flows and patterns. Ultimately, the book emphasises the importance of accounting for uncertainty and complexity in migration policy and presents practical tools for accurately measuring and managing migration now and in the future.
Advancing the methodology of setting migration scenarios under uncertainty, this book is an essential resource for migration practitioners, advisors and policy-makers and a valuable read for students and scholars of migration studies, geography and population sciences.
Through conceptual, theoretical and methodological analysis, From Uncertainty to Policy: A Guide to Migration Scenarios outlines the current state of the art in future-oriented migration studies. Highlighting key lessons and recommendations, expert contributors assess both the opportunities and limitations of scenario building as an analytical device. They combine demographic, statistical, sociological, economic, geographic and political science expertise to develop a new multi-step process for estimating, predicting and simulating migration flows and patterns. Ultimately, the book emphasises the importance of accounting for uncertainty and complexity in migration policy and presents practical tools for accurately measuring and managing migration now and in the future.
Advancing the methodology of setting migration scenarios under uncertainty, this book is an essential resource for migration practitioners, advisors and policy-makers and a valuable read for students and scholars of migration studies, geography and population sciences.
Critical Acclaim
‘From Uncertainty to Policy expertly tackles the challenge of forecasting migration in an unpredictable world. This volume equips scholars and policymakers with robust, realistic methods to navigate inherent uncertainties while taking a pragmatic approach to scenario building. An indispensable resource for crafting informed views onto possible migration futures.’
– Steven Vertovec, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Religious and Ethnic Diversity, Germany
‘Migration is not easy to predict but this excellent book covers all the issues that researchers and practitioners need to know to do the difficult job. Central to the message is the embracement of uncertainty about things we both understand and do not understand.’
– James Raymer, The Australian National University, Australia
– Steven Vertovec, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Religious and Ethnic Diversity, Germany
‘Migration is not easy to predict but this excellent book covers all the issues that researchers and practitioners need to know to do the difficult job. Central to the message is the embracement of uncertainty about things we both understand and do not understand.’
– James Raymer, The Australian National University, Australia
Contents
Contents
Foreword by Adrian E. Raftery xi
Acknowledgements xvi
PART I FOUNDATIONS
1 Introduction: migration uncertainty, policy and scenarios 2
Jakub Bijak
2 Collecting evidence: ingredients of scenario-building 10
Jakub Bijak and Mathias Czaika
PART II DEALING WITH EPISTEMIC
UNCERTAINTY: CONCEPTS, DRIVERS
AND DATA
3 Sources of uncertainty in migration scenarios 23
Mathias Czaika, Heidrun Bohnet, Federica Zardo
and Jakub Bijak
4 Migration drivers across time and space: selected
examples 38
Marta Bivand Erdal, Helga de Valk, Jackline
Wahba and Jakub Bijak
5 Estimating European migration flows 52
Peter W.F. Smith, Nico Keilman, Georgios
Aristotelous and Jakub Bijak
PART III ADAPTING TO ALEATORY
UNCERTAINTY: SCANNING THE FUTURE
WITH SCENARIOS
6 Ways of dealing with uncertainty in migration scenarios 72
Emily Barker and Jakub Bijak
7 Setting scenarios: combining numbers and stories 84
Michaela Potančoková, Helga de Valk, Rafael
Costa, Michaël Boissonneault and Jakub Bijak
PART IV FROM MIGRATION SCENARIOS TO
EVIDENCE-INFORMED POLICIES
8 Communico, ergo sum? Potential and pitfalls of
knowledge exchange 100
Daniela Vono de Vilhena, Andreas Edel and Christian Kobsda
9 Forecasting asylum: the perspective of the
European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) 114
Teddy A. Wilkin and Constantinos Melachrinos
10 Comment: dealing with uncertainty in population
projections 124
Rainer Muenz
11 Contested realities: context and the ethics of
migration scenarios 131
Ann Singleton
PART V CONCLUSIONS
12 Conclusion to From Uncertainty to Policy:
A Guide to Migration Scenarios 137
Jakub Bijak
References 148
Online resources 164
Glossary of key terms 166
Foreword by Adrian E. Raftery xi
Acknowledgements xvi
PART I FOUNDATIONS
1 Introduction: migration uncertainty, policy and scenarios 2
Jakub Bijak
2 Collecting evidence: ingredients of scenario-building 10
Jakub Bijak and Mathias Czaika
PART II DEALING WITH EPISTEMIC
UNCERTAINTY: CONCEPTS, DRIVERS
AND DATA
3 Sources of uncertainty in migration scenarios 23
Mathias Czaika, Heidrun Bohnet, Federica Zardo
and Jakub Bijak
4 Migration drivers across time and space: selected
examples 38
Marta Bivand Erdal, Helga de Valk, Jackline
Wahba and Jakub Bijak
5 Estimating European migration flows 52
Peter W.F. Smith, Nico Keilman, Georgios
Aristotelous and Jakub Bijak
PART III ADAPTING TO ALEATORY
UNCERTAINTY: SCANNING THE FUTURE
WITH SCENARIOS
6 Ways of dealing with uncertainty in migration scenarios 72
Emily Barker and Jakub Bijak
7 Setting scenarios: combining numbers and stories 84
Michaela Potančoková, Helga de Valk, Rafael
Costa, Michaël Boissonneault and Jakub Bijak
PART IV FROM MIGRATION SCENARIOS TO
EVIDENCE-INFORMED POLICIES
8 Communico, ergo sum? Potential and pitfalls of
knowledge exchange 100
Daniela Vono de Vilhena, Andreas Edel and Christian Kobsda
9 Forecasting asylum: the perspective of the
European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) 114
Teddy A. Wilkin and Constantinos Melachrinos
10 Comment: dealing with uncertainty in population
projections 124
Rainer Muenz
11 Contested realities: context and the ethics of
migration scenarios 131
Ann Singleton
PART V CONCLUSIONS
12 Conclusion to From Uncertainty to Policy:
A Guide to Migration Scenarios 137
Jakub Bijak
References 148
Online resources 164
Glossary of key terms 166
